Estimated reading time: 31 minutes
Introduction
In the last of this series, we will now focus on books 4 and 5 in level 2 for our full FRM exam summary.
(click here to see previous guide)
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FRM Level 2 Book 4 – Liquidity and Treasury Risk Management
Liquidity Risk
The credit crisis that started in 2007 has emphasized the importance of liquidity risk for both financial institutions and their regulators
Financial institutions that relied on wholesale deposits for their funding experienced problems as investors lost confidence in the financial system
Financial institutions found that some instruments for which there had previously been a liquid market could only be sold at fire-sale prices during the crisis
Solvency and liquidity
It is important to distinguish solvency from liquidity
Solvency refers to a company having more assets than liabilities (positive equity value)
Liquidity refers to the ability of a company to make cash payments as they become due
Failing because of liquidity
Financial institutions that are solvent can fail because of liquidity problems
Northern Rock, a British bank specializing in mortgage lending, failed largely because of liquidity problems
It is clearly important for financial institutions to manage liquidity carefully
Assess by worst-case liquidity
A financial institution should assess a worst-case liquidity scenario and make sure that it can survive that scenario by either converting assets into cash or raising cash in some other way
- The new Basel III requirements are designed to ensure that banks do this
Liquidity and trading
Liquidity is also an important consideration in trading
A liquid position in an asset is one that can be unwound at short notice
As the market for an asset becomes less liquid, traders are more likely to take losses because they face bigger bid–offer spreads
Liquidity sources
The main sources of liquidity for a financial institution are:
- Holdings of cash and Treasury securities
- The ability to liquidate trading book positions
- The ability to borrow money at short notice
- The ability to offer favorable terms to attract retail and wholesale deposits at short notice
- The ability to securitize assets (such as loans) at short notice
- Borrowings from the central bank
Liquidity black holes
Liquidity black holes are situations where a shock to financial markets causes liquidity to almost completely dry up
Here, everyone wants to sell and no one wants to buy, or vice versa
Liquidity and Leverage
One of the most important aspects of the subprime crisis was the sudden reluctance of financial institutions to lend money, and the increased reluctance to borrow
Most financial institutions are heavily leveraged
- That is, they borrow heavily to finance their assets, compared to the typical non-financial firm
Funding liquidity
Funding liquidity is the ability to finance assets continuously at an acceptable borrowing rate
Transaction liquidity risk
Transaction liquidity risk is the risk of moving the price of an asset adversely in the act of buying or selling it
Transaction liquidity risk is low if assets can be liquidated or a position can be covered quickly, cheaply, and without moving the price “too much”
We recall that an asset is said to be liquid if it is “near” or a good substitute for cash
Liquidity premiums
An asset is said to have a liquidity premium if its price is lower and expected return higher because it isn’t perfectly liquid
A market is said to be liquid if market participants can put on or unwind positions quickly, without excessive transactions costs and without excessive price deterioration
Funding liquidity risk
Funding liquidity risk is the risk that creditors either withdraw credit or change the terms on which it is granted in such a way that the positions have to be unwound and/or are no longer profitable
Systemic risk
Systemic risk refers to the risk of a general impairment of the financial system
Early Warning Indicators, EWIs
As an integral part of liquidity risk management (LRM), bank leadership has the responsibility to both:
- Identify underlying liquidity risk factors
- Manage underlying liquidity risk factors
Negative trends serve as early indicators that may warrant an assessment of a bank’s exposure to any emerging risk
EWI flags to watch for
Early Warning Indicators (EWIs) may include but are not limited to:
- Rapid asset growth, especially when funded with potentially volatile liabilities
- Growing concentrations in assets or liabilities
- Increases in currency mismatches
- Decrease of weighted average maturity of liabilities
- Repeated incidents of breaching internal or regulatory limits
- Significant deterioration in the bank’s financial condition
- Credit rating downgrade
- Stock price declines
- Rising debt costs
- Widening debt/credit-default-swap spreads
- Rising wholesale/retail funding costs
- Counterparties requesting additional collateral or resisting entering into new transactions
- Increasing redemptions of CDs before maturity
- Difficulty accessing longer-term funding
- Difficulty placing short-term liabilities
The Investment Function
The primary function of most banks and other depository institutions is not to buy and sell bonds, but rather to make loans to businesses and individuals
The use of loans
Loans support business investment and consumer spending in local communities
Such loans ultimately provide jobs and income to residents
Buying and selling bonds has its place because not all of a financial firm’s funds can be allocated to loans
The issue with loans
Many loans are illiquid—they cannot easily be sold or securitized prior to maturity if a lending institution needs cash in a hurry
Another problem is that loans are among the riskiest assets, generally carrying the highest customer default rates of any form of credit
Investments and portfolios
Investments perform a number of vital functions in the asset portfolios of financial firms, providing:
- Income
- Liquidity
- Diversification
- A partial shelter from taxation
Investments also tend to stabilize earnings, providing supplemental income when other sources of revenue are in decline
The investment officer
The investment officer must choose what kinds of investments best contribute to the goals established for each institution’s investment portfolio
In choosing which investments to hold, investments officers must weigh multiple factors:
- The goal of the investment portfolio
- Expected rates of return
- Tax exposure
- Risks associated with changing market interest rates
- Possible default
Liquidity and Reserves Management
A financial institution’s need for liquidity can be viewed within a demand–supply framework
For most financial institutions, the most pressing demands for spendable funds generally come from two sources:
- Customers withdrawing money from their accounts
- Credit requests from customers the institution wishes to keep
Either in the form of new loan requests or drawings upon existing credit lines
Sources of supply
To meet demands for liquidity, financial firms can draw upon several potential sources of supply
The most important source for a depository institution normally is receipt of new customer deposits
In choosing which source of reserves to draw upon, money managers must carefully consider several aspects:
- Immediacy of need
- Duration of need
- Access to the market for liquid funds
- Relative costs and risks of alternative sources of funds
- The interest rate outlook
- Outlook for central bank monetary policy
- Rules and regulations applicable to a liquidity source
Intraday Liquidity Risk Management
The banking industry’s interest in intraday liquidity risk in the United States can be traced back to the early 1980s
- This was an era of extremely high interest rates and tight money
Banks and stress testing
Banks should continuously build and expand the types of scenarios they can model in stress testing
Banks should have at least the following four scenarios:
- Own financial stress
- Counterparty stress
- Customer stress
- Market-wide credit or liquidity stress
The 2007–08 financial crisis highlighted a number of deficiencies in industry practices and led to more rigorous research efforts
Monitoring Liquidity
The identification and taxonomy of the cash flows that can occur during the business activity of a financial institution is crucial to building effective tools to monitor and manage liquidity risk
The taxonomy suggested focuses on two main dimensions:
- Time
- Amount
For Time: Cash flows may occur at future instants that are known with certainty or they may manifest themselves at some random instants
For Amount: Cash flows may occur in an amount that is known with certainty at the reference time, or their amount cannot be fully determined
In the first case we say that, according to the time of their appearance, they are deterministic
In the second case we define them as stochastic (again, according to time)
The failure mechanics
A bank is conventionally viewed as an intermediary between depositors, who desire short-term liquidity, and borrowers, who seek project financing
- Occasionally shocks prevent the ability of borrowers to repay their loans
- Depositors may become concerned over the bank’s solvency
- Depositors may then “run,” accelerating or worsening the bank’s failure
Treating the social costs of bank failures
The standard policy tools for treating the social costs of bank failures include:
- Regulatory supervision and risk-based capital requirements
- Deposit insurance
- Regulatory resolution mechanisms
Dealer banks
Dealer banks are often parts of large complex financial organizations whose failures can damage the economy significantly
- As a result, they are sometimes considered “too big to fail”
Off-balance-sheet financing
Some large dealer banks have made extensive use of “off-balance-sheet” financing
- Example, a bank can originate or purchase residential mortgages and other loans that are financed by selling the loans to a financial corporation or trust that it has set up for this express purpose
- Such a “special purpose entity” pays its sponsoring bank for the assets with the proceeds of debt that it issues to third-party investors
- The principal and interest payments of the debt issued by the special purpose entity are paid from the cash flows that it hopes to receive from the assets that it has purchased from the sponsoring bank
Liquidity Stress Testing
Liquidity stress testing provides the critical underpinning to a bank’s liquidity risk management framework
- The point of the test is to determine the amount of liquidity that must be held in order to ensure the institution can meet financial obligations under stressed conditions
A robust liquidity stress test is based on a projection of cash flows arising from assets, liabilities, and other off-balance sheet items
- It will be performed under a variety of systemic and idiosyncratic scenarios that can occur over varying time horizons
The LST framework
In order to construct an effective liquidity stress testing framework, it is important to clearly define what is meant by “liquidity” for liquidity stress testing purposes
- Within this context, liquidity refers to funding liquidity risk—the risk that the institution will not have adequate capacity to fund its obligations without incurring unacceptable economic losses
The strategic use of liquidity
As a source of funding liquidity, businesses utilize liquidity for four purposes:
- Operational purposes
- Restricted purposes
- Contingent purposes
- Strategic purposes
Focus areas for testing stress capabilities
As banks continue to refine their liquidity stress capabilities, they should focus on four areas:
- Ensuring appropriate scope and structure of the liquidity stress test
- Building the model on robust assumptions
- Improving integration with related risk and performance models
- Automating the process
A bank will produce a number of liquidity reports in the normal course of business, on a daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly basis
Stress test output results should help senior management to understand the liquidity position of the bank, enabling them to take mitigating action if deemed necessary
Contingency Funding Planning
A contingency funding plan (CFP) serves as a logical connection to its companion, the liquidity stress testing framework, by linking the stress test results and other related information as inputs to:
- The CFP governance
- The menu of contingent liquidity actions
- The decision framework
Contingent liquidity events
Contingent liquidity events can be categorized by their level of estimated adverse impact and probability
Institutions manage one end of the spectrum—the low-impact, high-probability events—as part of their business-as-usual (BAU) funding and liquidity risk management activities
However, they use CFPs to address the other end of the spectrum associated with high-impact low-probability events
Attributes of an effective CFP plan
An effective contingency funding plan will include the following attributes:
- Strong management involvement and participation from the enterprise
- Alignment to other capital and risk management frameworks
- Evaluation of a wide range of possible scenarios
- Clearly documented management action plan
- Communication plan with coordination to internal and external stake-holders
Managing and Pricing Services
Deposit accounts are the number one source of funds at most banks
Deposits provide much of the raw material for making loans and represent the ultimate source of profits and growth for a depository institution
Indicators of management effectiveness
Important indicators of management’s effectiveness are:
- Whether funds deposited by the public have been raised at the lowest possible cost
- Whether sufficient deposits are available to fund future projects
The ever-present issues
Two key issues every depository institution must deal:
Where can funds be raised at lowest possible cost?
How can management ensure that the institution always has enough deposits to support its activities?
The Chief Deposit Officer
So challenging has it become today to attract significant new deposits that many financial firms have created a new executive position— Chief Deposit Officer
Transaction deposits
Transaction deposits include:
Regular checking accounts, which often bear no interest-return
Interest-bearing deposits which usually pay a low yield
Non-transaction deposits
Non-transaction deposits may include:
Certificates of deposit (CDs)
Savings accounts
Money market accounts
Transaction versus non-transaction deposits
However, transaction deposits often are among the most profitable deposit services. This is due to:
- Their nonexistent or low interest rates
- The higher service fees these accounts usually carry
In contrast, non-transaction, or thrift, deposits generally have the advantage of a more stable funding base that allows a depository institution to reach for longer-term and higher-yielding assets
Covering a funds gap
Which non-deposit sources will management use to cover a funds gap?
The answer depends upon five factors:
- The relative costs of raising funds from each source
- The risk (volatility and dependability) of each funding source
- The length of time (maturity or term) for which funds are needed
- The size of the institution that requires more funds
- Regulations limiting the use of alternative funds sources
Repurchase Agreements and Financing
Repos are short-term contracts that are used to lend money on the security of usually high-grade collateral
- They are used to finance the purchase of bonds, and to borrow bonds to be sold short
Financial institutions have traditionally relied on repos to finance some portion of fixed income inventory
Why Repo financing?
Repo financing is typically a relatively inexpensive way to borrow money
However the practice can leave firms in a perilous situation should lenders of cash through repos, in times of trouble, fail to renew their loans
Liquidity Transfer Pricing
Internal transfer pricing is an extremely important management tool for banks
Until the global financial crisis (GFC), many banks treated liquidity as a free good for transfer pricing purposes
- This was one cause for the very poor liquidity outcomes experienced during the GFC
LTP as a practice
Although liquidity transfer pricing (LTP) practices are improving, there is little guidance publicly available to banks, regulators, and other stakeholders on what constitutes good practice
Remember that LTP is a process that attributes the costs, benefits and risks of liquidity to respective business units within a bank
The purpose of LTP
The purpose of LTP is to transfer liquidity costs and benefits from business units to a centrally managed pool
To achieve this, LTP charges users of funds (assets/loans) for the cost of liquidity, and credits providers of funds (liabilities/deposits) for the benefit of liquidity
The average cost approach to LTP
The average cost approach to LTP is simple, but has two major defects:
First, it neglects the varying maturity of assets and liabilities by applying a single charge for the use of funds
Second, it lags changes in banks’ actual market cost of funding
Matched-maturity marginal cost of funds
Overall, a matched-maturity marginal cost of funds approach promotes better LTP practice
A matched-maturity approach is more complex than the pooled average cost of funds approach, but it has some significant advantages:
First, it recognizes that the costs and benefits of liquidity are related to the maturities of assets and liabilities
Second, it recognizes the importance of having changes in market conditions incorporated quickly and efficiently into the rate used to charge and credit users and providers of funds
The US Dollar Shortage in Global Banking
The global financial crisis has shown just how unstable banks’ sources of funding can become
Throughout the crisis many banks faced severe difficulties securing short-term US dollar funding
In response, central banks around the world adopted extraordinary policy measures
- This includes international swap arrangements with the US Federal Reserve
- For the purpose of enabling them to provide US dollars to commercial banks in their respective jurisdictions
Financing foreign currency positions
A bank can finance foreign currency positions in several ways:
The bank can borrow domestic currency, and convert it in a straight FX spot transaction to purchase the foreign asset in that currency
It can use FX swaps to convert its domestic currency liabilities into foreign currency and purchase the foreign assets
The bank can borrow foreign currency, either from the interbank market, from non-bank market participants or from central banks
Covered interest parity
Covered interest parity (CIP) is the closest thing to a physical law in international finance
It holds that the interest rate differential between two currencies in the cash money markets should equal the differential between the forward and spot exchange rates
Otherwise, arbitrageurs could make a seemingly riskless profit
Risk Management for changing Interest Rates
Financial institutions today are highly complex organizations, offering multiple financial services through multiple departments, each staffed by specialists in making different kinds of decisions
The amount of risk that a financial firm accepts in its portfolio is closely related to the adequacy and composition of its capital (net worth)
In a well-managed financial institution management decisions must be coordinated in order to ensure they do not clash with each other
The dominant approach to funds management
The funds management approach which dominates today is a more balanced approach to asset-liability management that stresses several key objectives:
Management should exercise as much control as possible over the volume, mix, and return or cost of both assets and liabilities
Management’s control over assets must be coordinated with its control over liabilities so that asset management and liability management are internally consistent
Management policies need to be developed that maximize returns and effectively control costs
Illiquid Assets
Vayanos and Wang (2012) provide a taxonomy of how illiquidity arises due to market imperfections:
- Clientele effects and participation costs
- Transaction costs
- Search frictions
- Asymmetric information
- Price impact
- Funding constraints
FRM Level 2 Book 5 – Risk and Investment Management
Factor Theory
Assets earn risk premiums because they are exposed to underlying factor risks
The capital asset pricing model
The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) states that assets that crash when the market loses money are risky and therefore must reward their holders with high-risk premiums
While the CAPM defines bad times as times of low market returns, multifactor models capture multiple definitions of bad times across many factors and states of nature
The financial crisis of 2008 and 2009
During the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, the price of most risky assets plunged
The riskier fixed income securities, like corporate bonds, emerging market bonds, and high yield bonds, also fell, tumbling along with real estate
The only assets to go up during 2008 were cash (U.S. Treasury bills) and safe-haven sovereign bonds, especially long-term U.S. Treasuries
Asset risk premiums
Assets have risk premiums not because the assets themselves earn risk premiums
Assets are bundles of factor risks, and it is the exposures to the underlying factor risks that earn risk premiums
CAPM
CAPM was revolutionary because it was the first cogent theory to recognize that the risk of an asset was not how that asset behaved in isolation but how that asset moved in relation to other assets and to the market as a whole
CAPM lessons
CAPM Lesson 1: Don’t Hold an Individual Asset, Hold the Factor
CAPM Lesson 2: Each Investor Has His Own Optimal Exposure of Factor Risk
CAPM Lesson 3: The Average Investor Holds the Market
CAPM Lesson 4: The Factor Risk Premium Has an Economic Story
CAPM Lesson 5: Risk Is Factor Exposure
CAPM Lesson 6: Assets Paying Off in Bad Times Have Low Risk Premiums
Factors
Factors drive risk premiums
One set of factors describes fundamental, economy-wide variables like growth, inflation, volatility, productivity, and demographic risk
Another set consists of tradeable investment styles like the market portfolio, value-growth investing, and momentum investing
The economic theory behind factors
The economic theory behind factors can be either:
Rational; where the factors have high returns over the long run to compensate for their low returns during bad times, or
Behavioral; where factor risk premiums result from the behavior of agents that is not arbitraged away
Low economic growth
When economic growth slows or inflation is high, all firms and investors in the economy are affected—it is just a question of degree
Most consumers dislike low growth and high inflation because it is more likely they will be laid off or they are less able to afford the same basket of goods and services in real terms
Those who benefit from slow growth
A few investors, such as debt collectors, benefit from slow growth, and a few other investors, including owners of oil wells, benefit from high inflation induced by surging commodity prices
Alpha
Alpha is the average return in excess of a benchmark
- It tells us more about the set of factors used to construct that benchmark than about the skill involved in beating it
A positive alpha under one set of factors can turn negative using a different set
Whatever the benchmark, alpha is often hard to detect statistically, especially when adjustments for risk vary over time
The risky anomaly
The risky anomaly is that stocks with low betas and low volatilities have high returns
or…
The risk anomaly is that risk (as measured by market beta or volatility) is negatively related to returns
The low-risk anomaly
The low-risk anomaly is a combination of three effects, with the third a consequence of the first two:
- Volatility is negatively related to future returns
- Realized beta is negatively related to future returns
- Minimum variance portfolios do better than the market
Portfolio Construction
Implementation is the efficient translation of research into portfolios
Implementation includes both portfolio construction and trading
Good implementation can’t help poor research, but poor implementation can foil good research
Important inputs of portfolio construction
Portfolio construction requires several inputs:
- The current portfolio
- Alphas
- Covariance estimates
- Transactions cost estimates
- An active risk aversion
- Of the above inputs, we can only measure the current portfolio with near certainty
The present errors
The alphas, covariances, and transactions cost estimates are all subject to error
The alphas are often unreasonable and subject to hidden biases
The covariances and transactions costs are noisy estimates; they are not measured with certainty
Questions for Implementation
Implementation schemes must address two questions:
- First, what portfolio would we choose given inputs (alpha, covariance, active risk aversion, and transactions costs) known without error?
- Second, what procedures can we use to make the portfolio construction process robust in the presence of unreasonable and noisy inputs?
The classes of procedures
There are four generic classes of procedures that cover the vast majority of institutional portfolio management applications:
- Screens
- Stratification
- Linear programming
- Quadratic programming
Portfolio Risk: Analytical Methods
Initially, VaR was developed as a methodology to measure portfolio risk
The concept of value-at-risk (VaR), or portfolio risk, is not new
What is new is the systematic application of VaR to many sources of financial / portfolio risk
VaR and leverage
VaR explicitly accounts for leverage and portfolio diversification and provides a simple, single measure of risk based on current positions
Measuring VaR
There are many approaches to measuring VaR
The shortest approach assumes that asset payoffs are linear (or delta) functions of normally distributed risk factors
Why VaR?
Many of the reasons that made VaR successful in the banking industry also apply to asset managers:
VaR is a forward-looking measure of the risk profile of a fund based on current positions
The more traditional returns-based approach, in contrast, is purely historical; it does not offer timely measurement of risk
VaR can be used to measure, control, and manage risk
VaR is comprehensive because it accounts for leverage, volatility, and diversification
VaR is a simple measure of risk that can be explained easily to portfolio managers and investors
VaR systems also can be used to set consistent guidelines
Risk Monitoring and Performance Measurement
The uncertainty of loss represents the cost that businesses accept to produce profit
Loss potential (i.e., “risk”) represents the “shadow price” behind profit expectations
A willingness to accept loss in order to generate profit suggests that a cost benefit process is present
Risk and Return
For a return to be deemed desirable, it should attain levels that compensate for the risks incurred
The risk budget
The risk budget—often called asset allocation—should quantify the vision of the business plan
For each allocation of risk budget, there should be a corresponding (and acceptable) return expectation
For each return expectation, some sense of expected variability around that expectation should be explored
Portfolio Performance Evaluation
Most financial assets are managed by professional investors
Efficient allocation therefore depends on the quality of these professionals and the ability of financial markets to identify the best stewards
If capital markets are to be reasonably efficient, investors must be able to measure the performance of their asset managers
An appropriate performance measure depends on the role of the portfolio to be evaluated
The different performance measures
Appropriate performance measures are as follows:
Sharpe: When the portfolio represents the entire investment fund
Information ratio: When the portfolio represents the active portfolio to be optimally mixed with the passive portfolio
Treynor: When the portfolio represents one sub-portfolio of many
Jensen (alpha): All of these measures require a positive alpha for the portfolio to be considered attractive
Style analysis
Style analysis uses a multiple regression model where the factors are category (style) portfolios such as bills, bonds, and stocks
The coefficients on the style portfolios indicate a passive strategy that would match the risk exposures of the managed portfolio
Shifting mean and risk of actively managed portfolios make it difficult to assess performance
- An important example of this problem arises when portfolio managers attempt to time the market, resulting in ever-changing portfolio betas
Manipulation and measuring performance
Managers can manipulate their performance measures by adjusting their risk-return profile in response to performance in the early part of an evaluation period
Morningstar risk-adjusted return
The Morningstar risk-adjusted return is the only manipulation-proof performance measure
Decomposing portfolio performance
Common attribution procedures decompose portfolio performance to:
- Asset allocation
- Sector selection
- Security selection decisions
Performance is assessed by calculating departures of portfolio composition from a benchmark or neutral portfolio
Hedge Funds
Hedge funds have their roots in the world of private wealth management
For over half a century, wealthy individuals invested their capital alongside “talented” traders expecting out-sized return to their investment irrespective of general market conditions
Hedge funds versus mutual funds
Hedge funds are distinct from mutual funds in several important respects:
Historically, hedge funds are private investment vehicles not open to the general investment public
Hedge funds face less regulation than publicly traded mutual funds
This allows them to hold substantial short positions to preserve capital during market downturns
Typically, hedge fund managers generate profit from both long as well as short positions
It is the practice of shorting and the leveraging of investors’ capital that distinguish hedge funds from conventional long-bias funds
Performing Due Diligence
Due diligence is the term used to describe the process of evaluation and analysis that an investor follows to get comfortable with a strategy, a manager, and a fund prior to making an investment
The steps of due diligence
Due diligence includes all the steps that are needed to get to know:
Why and how a fund came into being
The skills its founders or current partners claim to have mastered
The evaluation of the timeliness, accuracy, and consistency of manager and fund information
The reliability and independence of service providers; and far more
The skill sets needed to run a hedge fund
Investors would be wise to assess all three skill sets needed to run a modern-day hedge fund:
- Investment
- Operational
- Business skills
The segments of the due diligence process
This segment organizes the due diligence process into four sections:
The Investment process
Risk management
Operational environment
Business model assessment
In closing
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